Global Melt Projections
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How Environmental Change Affects Winter Sports and How Winter Sports Affect The Environment - Experts Comment The Big Picture The Big PictureGlobal warming is an increase in the temperature of the Earth's atmosphere believed by many 'experts' to be caused by the so-called "greenhouse" effect. The majority of climate scientists believe the warming is, to a greater or lesser degree, caused by human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil, coal and natural gas. Some climate deniers disagree and believe climate change is almost entirely a natural, cyclical process which may go in to reverse. Whatever the cause, there is disagreement as to whether climate change is something we can control by modifying our behaviour. Earth's average temperature rose at least 1 degree C in the 20th century, according to the World Meteorological Organization. But the rise has accelerated since 1976. 2005 tied with 1998 for the warmest on record, and nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred in the past decade. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts an average global temperature increase of 1.4 to 5.8 degrees (Celsius) by the end of this century It's hard to find any scientist who disagrees that the Earth's temperatures are getting higher. But the effects it will have on different regions of the planet is still largerly unknown. The following cuttings are taken from media reports around the world and are generally from those who believe that global warming is happening and being at least partially caused and accelerated by human activity.
CausesRecent ice core data collected from Antarctica indicate carbon dioxide and methane, both greenhouse gases, are currently 30 percent higher than any time in the last 650,000 years. Those who believe the rise is caused by human activity attribute it to increasing fossil fuel combustion and intensive agricultural practices (e.g., livestock and rice fields). On the opposing side Oklahoma's senator James Inhofe, chairman of the US Environment and Public Works Committee sums up the general view that, "Manmade global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people."
Global Warming And Ski AreasGlobal warming is expected to become stronger in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter months, making mountain-based winter tourism particularly vulnerable. Scientists also say the levels of snow falling in lower-lying mountain areas will become increasingly unpredictable over the coming decades. "Low-altitude ski resorts will simply go out of business, and skiers will have to go higher and higher to find snow," according to Sergio Savoia, director of WWF's European Alpine Program in Bellinzona, Switzerland. "2005 was the hottest year on record, according to NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, which takes the planet's temperature with readings from 7,200 weather stations across the globe. Before 2005, 1998 was the warmest. Also among the warmest years on record were 2002, 2003 and 2004. Global temperatures will increase 3 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century." Steve Running, a professor at the University of Montana and a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). "Our research suggests that since about 1980 the temperature increase from solar activity was steeper than ever. We estimate that 50 per cent of this is as a result of greenhouse gas emissions." Werner Schmultz, a professor at the World Radiation Centre, based in Davos, Switzerland. Specific Mountain RegionsIn 2006 scientists reported the snow at the world's highest resort of Chacaltaya (17,388 feet/5,300 metres above sea level) in the Bolivian Andes could disappear altogether within five years due to climate change. "This has been the worst year we've had. It's quite sad to see," said Samuel Mendoza of the Bolivian Andean Club in March 2006. The rudimentary ski lift at Chacaltaya dates back almost to the club's foundation in 1939. "There is no doubt this is the result of the actions of man," said Alfonso Velarde, director of the Institute of Physical Investigation at La Paz's San Andres University. Velarde said Chacaltaya's glacier has shrunk by 80 percent in the last 15 years, and the experts measuring its decline say that at this rate it will be gone in four or five years. Dr Jaime Argollo of La Paz university's Institute of Geological Investigation and his international team say similar patterns are being played out all along the Andes and that within 70 or 80 years there could be no glaciers left in the mountain chain that runs the length of South America. The decline of Bolivia's glaciers could cause wider problems for the city of La Paz as the glacial waters are the source of drinking water and of generating electricity. According to United Nations and European Environmental Agency studies, no mountains on the planet are being hit by global warming as severely as Europe's Alps. "Climate change is a severe threat to snow related sports. Lower earnings in winter tourism will reinforce economic disparities between urban areas and the less developed alpine regions. Additionally, the ski tourism industry will 'climb' up the mountains to reach snow reliable areas at high altitude. This process will lead to a concentration of winter sport activities, and will put further pressure on the sensitive environment of high mountains." From UN Environment Program Conference on Sport and Environment, 2003 "We don't expect to have snow in low lying resorts such as Klosters for more than the next 10 years," Werner Schmultz, World Radiation Centre, Switzerland. In July 2006 Swiss researchers from the University of Zurich concluded that the Alps will lose 80 percent of their glaciers by the end of the century. That's the average-temp-rise scenario of 3 degrees Celsius. The high end projections -- a 5 C increase -- will result in the loss of all Alpine glaciers. A 2006 report on winter sports in Italy has reported that snow fall has diminished by an average of 18.7% in 35 monitored ski resorts in the country. The report by WWF Italy entitled, "Alpi, turismo e ambiente, alla ricerca di un equilibrio" (Alps, tourism and the environment, the quest for balance") does not give a timescale for the decrease. This figure can however be considered representative of most of the Southern Alps between 1,000 and 2,500 metres. In Italy there are some 4,693 km of ski-runs, 60% of which are serviced by snow making. Low altitude areas have suffered more, with the average snow fall decrease reaching 40%. Higher Alpine areas have seen smaller declines. A report by the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin (RMGB) Regional Assessment Team for the U.S. Global Change Research Program says that "most analyses project a decline, if not total demise, of downhill skiing by the mid or latter part of the 21st century. One climatologist's model projects disappearance of snowpacks by approximately 2070 in the northern Rockies which would eliminate skiing in the RMGB." A study by Colorado College published in April 2006 predicts global warming could have a major impact on the state's ski areas by 2050 due to loss of snow cover as temperatures rise. The most dramatic projections include an 82% loss of "Spring snowpack" in the area that includes Telluride ski resort by 2085, whilst Eagle County, home of Vail and Beaver Creek could be down 57%. Most other major resorts including Breckenridge, Crested Butte and Steamboat could lose 50% of their snow cover, whilst Aspen - one of the resorts that is most actively publicising the threat of global warming to the ski industry - could see a 43% loss. The 2006 Colorado College State of the Rockies Report Card suggests that rising temperatures will mean more precipitation falls as rain rather the snow making winter sports 'no longer economically viable' by 2050. If warm weather shortens ski seasons by a few weeks it could quickly make currently profitable resorts fall below marginal break-even season length requirements. The Report projects temperature increases of 7-10 degrees Celsius during the summer if the current rates of population expansion and development continue using conventional fuel. This would result in most areas losing at least half their snowpack the Report projects. If energy use switches to gas, seen as the least environmentally damaging fossil fuel as an interim measure before power is switched to renewable energy, the Report projects temperature rises of 1-5 degrees Celsius with half of snow areas losing 50 percent of their snowpack In April 2006 a group of school children from Juneau in Alaska, who describe themselves as "the future citizens of Alaska," stood up before the Juneau Assembly and asked them to take action on global warming. "The rapid retreat of the Mendenhall Glacier and several bad skiing years at Eaglecrest Ski Area are examples of global warming around Juneau," claimed 16 year old Gabrielle Vance, a regular skier. She pointed to research by a panel of local scientists who reported that Juneau's annual average temperature has risen about three degrees since 1950. The children said their lives are affected by rapidly melting glaciers, insect outbreaks and thawing permafrost. Tom Swetnam of the University of Arizona's Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, which tracks climate change through tree growth says those who blame periodic drought, not global warming, for forest destruction cannot ignore conditions in British Columbia. Almost 50 million acres of forest there are dead or dying from a bark-beetle infestation that was worsened by drought and warmth. "It's tied to extraordinarily warm temperatures in that part of Canada, not drought," Swetnam says. "If we continue our addiction to fossil fuels, 70 to 90 percent of the actual snow on the ground in the California Sierras could be gone by the end of this century," said Texas Tech atmospheric scientist Katharine Hayhoe, lead author of a 2004 study on climate change in California. "By 2060 or so, if we don't change our ways, holding another Winter Olympics in Squaw Valley would be very difficult." A report predicting global warming's effects on California's economy could have dire implications for Tahoe's ski industry. Under a business-as-usual scenario, snowpack could decline by 90 percent by the end of the century, said Michael Hanemann, a professor of economics at UC Berkeley. Even under the best scenario, where greenhouse gas emissions stop today, Sierra snowpack could still shrink 36 percent over the next 50 years, according to Autumn Bernstein with the conservation group Sierra Nevada Alliance. A New Mexico state report last month predicted a possible rise of 8-12 degrees in New Mexico's average temperature by the end of this century. That would bring hotter summers and shorter, warmer winters with less snow, the 47-page study said. The report foresees less water for cities and towns, agriculture and other needs because less snow will accumulate in the mountains during shorter, warmer winters. New Mexico, like other US states, relies on the annual melting of that snowpack for most of the state's water supply. The report predicted extreme weather that includes floods and longer droughts, wildfires, water loss from evaporation, extinction of wild species, invasion of non-native plants, air pollution and disruption of agriculture, tourism and the environment. A 2003 report concluded that by 2020 Australian ski resorts could be experiencing seasons shortened by as little as a few days, or 25 per cent in the case of the high altitude sites, and up to 60 per cent for the lower altitude sites. Some Areas May Get More SnowAn oddity of warming is that, in some regions, more snow might fall, says University of Illinois atmospheric sciences Prof. Donald Wuebbles. "Our analysis shows that Michigan and upper New York may actually get more snow under a warm climate scenario, because the Great Lakes won't freeze as often, resulting in more moisture and more snow." John Hallett, a cloud physicist for Desert Research Institute at the University of Nevada, Reno, says a warmer earth means storm systems will move around quicker. Still, as many cold storms could hit Tahoe from the north as warm storms from the south. "I would be hard pressed to say that in general Tahoe ski resorts would do better or worse. I'm not all that pessimistic that we won't be having some reasonably wet years." Glaciers MeltingScientists estimate that half of the glacier ice in the Alps has disappeared in the past century. (According to the report "Meltdown: The Alps Under Pressure") A 2004 report by the European Environment Agency predicted that 75 percent of the glaciers in the Swiss Alps will have disappeared by 2050. The U.S. Geological Survey says glaciers in Montana's Glacier National Park could disappear in 25 years if temperatures continue to increase at the present rate. They'll now disappear anyway by 2100 following temperature rises to date in any case the USGS says, even bif global warming stopped increasing today. Reuters reported that The Tortin glacier above Verbier used to stretch to the base of ski lifts and other paths, but lift company TeleVerbier now has to use heavy machinery every autumn to move snow to fill gaps left from the ice formation's steady retreat. "Only five to 10 years ago we didn't need any additional snow from the glacier," said Eric Balet, director general of Televerbier. In spring 2005, to save surging fuel and other costs from moving the snow, he opted to cover up 26,900 square feet on the glacier's edge with a thin insulating sheet to try to slow the melting. The project was expanded to cover 100,000 square feet in 2006. In March 2006 the Journal of Glaciology published the results of a survey by NASA that found that computer models based on assumptions about the impact of the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the Earth's atmosphere had accurately predicted the extensive thinning of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets that has taken place there. "If the trends we're seeing continue and climate warming continues as predicted, the polar ice sheets could change dramatically," according to lead scientist Jay Zwally. "The Greenland ice sheet could be facing an irreversible decline by the end of the century." A related study published by Science magazine concluded that the Antarctic ice sheet is losing 152 cubic kms of ice each year to the sea around it due to global warming, while another, also based on NASA data, found that the ice cover in the Arctic Sea is currently at its lowest extent since satellite monitoring began in 1979, and probably the lowest in the past century. What Skiers Think"I think winter's moved from October to March to now November to April," said U.S. freestyle skier Joe Pack. "October isn't as wintry as it used to be." SnowmakingSnowmaking comes with environmental costs, says Michel Revaz, of the International Commission for Protection of the Alps (CIPRA), a conservation group in Schaan, Liechtenstein. "Making snow chews up energy and water, and can rob rivers and creeks in the surrounding ecosystems." "Products used in some artificial snow are fungicidal, and the use of salts on some ski runs to make them faster has quite a drastic impact on soil and plants." Christian Rixen, a scientist at the Davos-based Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research. In 2005-6 New England ski areas were forced to make more snow using machines, an energy- and water-intensive process, and to groom trails more vigorously due to lack of natural snowfall. The Vermont Ski Areas Association estimates the state's resorts spend about $20 million on energy a year, the second-largest operating expense behind employee pay. Generating Development In The Mountains"Ski-related tourism is responsible for heavy traffic on Alpine roads, for the growth of urban sprawl encroaching on valley floors and high plateaus, and for the waste of energy for construction work and artificial snow," said Sergio Savoia, director of WWF's European Alpine Program in Bellinzona, Switzerland. The Ski Industry"Ski-resort operators have a responsibility to reduce carbon dioxide and other emissions linked with global warming. I think they're slowly waking up to the fact that global warming has serious local consequences, not only in environmental terms but also in cold hard cash. In the future the ski industry could become a de facto ally in the struggle to fight climate change globally and in adapting to its consequences locally." Sergio Savoia, director of WWF's European Alpine Program in Bellinzona, Switzerland. "Global warming is going to have a huge impact on the Sierra," said Autumn Bernstein of Sierra Nevada Alliance. "We think the ski industry should be leading the way in terms of reducing emissions and actively supporting legislative efforts to reduce emissions." Doing Their BitAs part of its Olympic bid, the Turin Organizing Committee (TOROC) established "Heritage Climate Torino," or HECTOR, which it calls the "climate legacy program" of the Olympics. In cooperation with the Piedmont Regional Government and local town councils, five sustainable energy use projects are under construction that, in theory, will help offset the 121,000 tons of additional CO gas the Olympics generated. Doing Your BitU.S. cross-country skier Wendy Wagner said, "Ski racers are environmentalists. Some of it is related to self interest. No snow means less ski sales, less ski sales means manufacturers have less marketing funds to support elite athletes. It's a vicious cycle, with one more contradiction being that to travel to good snow conditions, skiers usually have to drive gas-guzzling SUVs. The next vehicle I get will be an SUV hybrid." (Not) Meeting Kyoto TargetsCanada Canada's emissions have risen more than 20 percent from 1990 levels, the former Liberal Environment Minister and the president of the Conference of Parties (COP)--a UN body overseeing the Kyoto protocol--Stephane Dion, insists that Canada is not giving up on its Kyoto commitments. USA Carbon emissions have been growing an average of 1% a year since 1990 in the US. In February 2006 the US Environmental Protection Agency reported a 1.7% jump in carbon dioxide for 2004. "Under the Bush administration, the United States is ignoring the world's best scientists on climate change," said New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. President Bush has emphasized voluntary measures and rejected the Kyoto Protocol, a treaty on global warming, saying mandatory cuts in emissions would hurt the economy. The Last Word"Climate change should be driving everything we all do." Auden Schendler, Aspen Environmental Affairs Director.
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